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   Saturday, May 04, 2002

My prediction for the French presidential election runoff: Le Pen at 17 %. Here is how I see it: what he had in the first round (17%) plus the votes of Megret (2%) plus votes reported from the extreme-left (3%), plus people who enjoy anarchy (5%), minus the percentage he will lose because of the huge republican reaction in favor of Chirac (10%). The polls are actually more pessimistic (they predict a maximum 81% to Chirac), but as polls proved to be a disastrous help in the first round(should they be banned?), let's go with our intuition. I think polls can't really measure up the fact that questioned people will actually walk until the booth this time around.

And on Monday let's wake up with another hangover because we've lost two weeks of our life thinking about an idiot who shouldn't have been around in the first place, while the problems of French society will be more acute than ever. Maybe we'll get some understanding from, say, Chileans who lost years of their intellectual life because of Pinochet, or Serbians who were f... over and over by Milosevic.